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Deloitte: Consumer loan and credit card loan indicators are expected to rise slowly

1/1 Deloitte: Consumer loan and credit card loan indicators are expected to rise slowly

The New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic is raging around the world. Deloitte believes that the impact of the epidemic on the real economy will affect corporate loans, personal consumer loans and credit card loans in some industries. It is expected that the negative indicators will rise slowly. Guo Xinhua, a managing partner of Deloitte’s China Bank and Capital Markets Industry, predicts that the impact of the epidemic on the bank’s provision level and NPL ratio will only show up in the third quarter of this year, and the specific performance remains to be seen. He continued that the emergence of non-performing loans may have a lag period of 3 to 6 months; the rate of increase of non-performing loans is currently unpredictable, but he believes that the scale of disposal of non-performing loans in the next three years will definitely exceed the past three years. Shi Zhonghui, a Deloitte China audit and assurance partner, believes that the epidemic has a limited impact on the profitability of medium and large banks, mainly because their capital and loan structures are sufficiently dispersed and buffered. He continued by pointing out that mainland banks have done a lot of liquidation of non-performing loans in the past few years; and that the banks themselves and their regulatory requirements are very strict. Before the outbreak, the banks’ balance sheets were healthy. In addition, under the forward-looking provision requirements, the bank’s provision in the past few years has also helped them to make adequate preparations. Shi Zhonghui said that the asset quality of the Bank of China has improved in the past few years, but the problems exposed by small and medium-sized banks are more prominent, including Baoshang Bank and Jinzhou Bank. For the funding of small and medium-sized banks, the injection of funds can maintain their operation, but in the long run, they must improve their own governance structure and internal control to attract investors. The world’s major central banks have cut interest rates one after another. Shi Zhonghui believes that China’s overall interest rate trend cannot be completely separated from the global trend. It is expected that domestic interest rates will also fall, which will have a certain impact on bank interest spreads, but I believe the impact can be controlled. Guo Xinhua pointed out that although the domestic epidemic prevention and control measures are gradually in place and the resumption of production and orderly production is in order, overseas is still in a high incidence period and China ’s exports are affected. Therefore, loose monetary policy is required, and the loan market quotation mechanism (LPR) is expected to decline further. He pointed out that the downward interest rate of LPR drives the general decline in interest rates, which is good for the real economy, and the reduction in loan costs is conducive to stimulating the credit needs of enterprises and individuals. Recently, disputes broke out at the Bank of China’s crude oil treasure. Zeng Hao, a Deloitte China auditing and assurance partner, believes that during the issuance of wealth management business, commercial banks should strengthen investor education and counseling to make them more aware of the terms. extreme case. He said that many commercial banks have greatly improved their valuation and risk control capabilities than before, and believe that they will be further enhanced in the future. (f)

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